Powerless

Remember when there was not an energy crisis? Remember when the constant blackouts were not signs of an impending energy collapse but just the growth pains of a flourishing, rapidly expanding economy? Well, we might be heading for another no-crisis again!

Just as they deny that inflation is high and growing, the government is now forcefully denying that the meeting of Argentina, Brazil and Bolivia's heads of state to solve the energy problem was a failure. It was a failure, of course. Bolivia told us they've got contracts signed with Brazil to send 30 million cubic meters per day of natural gas their way, and they intend to fulfill them, unless Brazil agreed to loosen up the terms. Upon Argentina's request, Brazil (that is, Petrobras) kindly replied they're not going to let us have a single molecule of their Bolivian natural gas, because they need it to power the massive (and politically influential) São Paulo's industrial complex. Faced with Argentina's teary-eyed despair, it's quite likely Brazil and Bolivia tried to console her, "You still have Venezuela."

We need fossil fuel for our power plants, industries and vehicles. You can't cut fuel to the power plants, or you'll have blackouts. Angry citizens in the dark aren't good for presidential popularity. You can't cut natural gas for cars, because there are over a million cars in Argentina running on it. You also can't cut NG for homes, because we cook and heat our bathwater with it. You can't cut fuel oil, either, because most heavy vehicles run on it, from the trucks that transport consumer products all across our vast territory to the machines that harvest our crops.

Last year, industries were forced to agree with the government on programmed cuts of the supply of natural gas, and on new working hours. They moved their working shifts around, and to cover the rest of their demand they imported fuel oil from Venezuela at four times the price of natural gas, with some help from government subsidies. This was a problem and will be a problem again this winter, when everybody in the cities starts turning on the NG-powered heaters at full blast. There are some industries and power plants that need natural gas no matter what.

Brazil finally agreed to send a few million megawatts of their spare electricity our way as a compensation for depriving us of our Bolivian natural gas. The offer is neither enough nor well-meaning. It seems Brazil is still angry because last year we re-negotiated the price of natural gas with Bolivia, and Brazil ended up paying a lot more because the new Bolivian government realized they'd been giving it away.

Oh, and Bolivia just realized that they don't have the infrastructure they need to deliver the 20 million m³ of natural gas they'd promised..., the gas for which we're building a huge, expensive gasoduct. We were expecting it for 2010, but Bolivia says the private companies that must invest in exploration and transport of the gas are withholding their money — because they don't like a Socialist/populist government that takes 50% of their massive profits from them. So the gasoduct will be just an empty, useless pipe for a couple of years at least.

Chile also needs natural gas to heat homes. They imported a lot from us, but starting in 2004 we broke our contractual obligations (with some legal protection — national needs are above contracts with foreign companies) and nowadays our gas exports are a trickle (or maybe a whiff?). So not only we're screwed, we're also screwing Chile. Argentina met Chile too, on a separate account, and they agreed that Chilean companies will get natural gas and they'll give our companies fuel oil. This is good for Chile because otherwise they'd have to use diesel, which is pricier. The equation doesn't work for Argentina, however, because fuel oil is so much more expensive than natural gas. Something will have to be done to fix that.

And, of course, this mess is not such, but only the reflection of a flourishing economy. There is and there won't be an energy crisis, and if you say so, you're a conspirator against the government, bent on destroying the country, and probably a neoliberal serial baby killer as well.

So cold

Did I tell you already I'm freakin' cold these days, all day?

This is not normal. Sure, those cold waves from freezing airmasses coming from Antarctica are not uncommon at all. Just not like this, in mid-autumn, and lasting a week, and featuring those lovely sub-zero temperatures every day. It's almost 10:00 PM and we're still under freezing point, and it's terribly humid, and yet this weather is so ill-behaved that it's not snowing as predicted. It hasn't happened in Rosario since 1973, but it may this winter, though. It's already snowed in places of Córdoba Province and in Mendoza — both on the same latitude as Rosario. So, no adorable pictures of snow-white parks for you.

People are dying as a result of the cold, and there are serious problems with the power generation and distribution, and the supply of natural gas. Those who don't live in Argentina may not fully appreciate what that means for us. Electricity, except for lighting, is comparatively expensive, and so are most fossil fuels. Natural gas (as a real gas, or compressed and liquefied) is employed for home heating, to heat our bathwater, to cook, and to power cars (Argentina has the greatest absolute number of LNG-powered vehicles). Industries use loads of natural gas for all sorts of processes, and power stations burn it to generate energy. When there's not enough, they have to use fuel oil, which is four times the price (and that, only thanks to Mad Hugo up there).

Now, we produce a lot of gas and export a lot of it to Chile, but when demand is high the flow is stopped so as to supply internal consumption first. Since this is the case now, the Chileans are mad at us. Chile made the mistake of planning its energy future based on Argentina's abundante supply of cheap gas (we all know you can't pin your future to Argentina's anything!). Interestingly, Bolivia, which sits atop a veritable ocean of liquid and gasseous hydrocarbons, provides us with a lot of extra gas, and has more than enough for Chile too, but due to a territorial dispute they refuse to sell it to them (and only sell to us on the condition that we don't re-route it to Chile!). The dispute could be solved if only Chile gave back to Bolivia a strip of land that reaches up to the Pacific Ocean, which it stole ages ago; but that won't happen soon.

Back to Argentina and to Rosario and to me: I'm cold (did I tell you already?) and I also officially have a nasty cold as of today, which is a pity since these days are so sunny they motivate you to go outside, but I can't risk catching something worse. On the other hand, better get some antibodies now than during my winter vacations.